 In
the last Westminster election, held in 2005, the SNP polled just
9% of the vote in the newly created BRS seat. This was
disappointing and followed a relentless, cynical campaign by our
rivals to portray the election as un-winnable for our party. We
simply didn't have the financial resources to compete against this
cynicism, with the Tories being bankrolled to an unprecedented
extent, at that time, by the late Duke of Buccleuch. Our opponents would like the voters to think
nothing has changed since then and keep playing the broken record
that it is a two-horse race. Of course it doesn't take
a genius to see through this and to know that this view is
nonsense, given the first ever national election victory by the
SNP in May 2007 having rewritten the election form book. The
above chart plots opinion polls for Westminster voting intentions
from prior to the last General Election, the last Scotland wide
General Election result and opinion polls conducted more recently. While
at the moment the chart indicates that our party rating has more
than
doubled since the last election, from 17.7% to 34%, at the expense
of Labour and (in particular) the Lib Dems, who have seen their
support more than halved from 22.6% to just 9%, we are taking nothing for granted. Opinion polls
go up as well as down and by the time of the next election our
rating may have come down, or it may have strengthened further. Whether support is 30% or
34%, is neither here nor
there - the fact is we are significantly ahead of where we were in
2005 and our opponent would like you to believe otherwise. Support for the party at Scottish Parliament level
goes from strength to strength - for analysis of relevant opinion
polls click here. However, what this does indicate is that
anyone who states at the moment, in their literature or in person,
that the next election is a two horse race or appears to believe
that we have the same political climate as in 2005 is either
deluded or, more likely, attempting to deceive you and the
electorate in general. Hence, we urge you to take the material
issued and words uttered by the Tories and Lib Dems on this with a
pinch of salt...... We firmly believe that the climate has
changed and that the electorate is too smart to have the wool
pulled over its eyes a second time. At the next Westminster election, our candidate, Paul
Wheelhouse, can win if we work hard. There is all to play
for.
Based upon recent Scottish poll ratings for the parties,
independent analysts and observers, such as "Electoral
Calculus" project (which does not appear to be overtly
aligned to the SNP judging by its banner) suggests that the seat could be heading for a
close three-way contest between the SNP, Tories and Lib Dems, as
shown below. Based upon the latest statistically significant
poll, by MRUK
Cello, Electoral Calculus' analysis has the seat as a Tory
gain (31%) with the SNP in second place (26%). While we can argue about
the finer points of each party's standing, this analysis is striking in its
similarity to recent polling at a Borders level in the May 2007
election for the Scottish Parliament, which would have had a
similar cluster of the SNP, Lib Dems and Tories fighting for the
seat, all with between 26% (SNP) and 24% (Lib Dems) shares of the
vote, with Labour some way behind in the low teens. 
If you
are sitting there thinking "they would say that" and don't believe us,
we would encourage you to visit the site yourself and run your
own projection for Scotland. The outcome will vary depending
upon national standing of the parties. Of course, we know that to win,
we will have to work hard to make what is a uniform swing
assumption stick in practice. However, working hard is precisely what we
intend to do! |
