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SUPPORT for Scottish independence has reached an all-time high,
according to a poll released yesterday by Alex Salmond, the SNP
leader. He claimed it was evidence that his party had returned to
setting the political agenda.
Asked by TNS System Three "do you support or oppose Scotland
becoming a country independent from the rest of the UK?", 46%
were in favour and 39% against, with 15% undecided. Only among those
aged more than 55 was there opposition to independence, prompting Mr
Salmond to claim it was now an idea whose time had come. He said:
"Independence is the big idea in Scottish politics and is now
set to move to centre stage in this campaign. We have a chance to
make Scotland's parliament a powerhouse parliament." The SNP
leader argued that the "angst" over the Holyrood project
was now fading and people were turning to discussion on the future
of Scotland. "Whatever the controversy, now that we have a real
parliament building, people clearly want a real parliament to be
meeting inside it," he said.
TNS System Three canvassed 922 voters during the first week of
this month. The same fieldwork showed voting intentions for May 5,
with Labour on 45%, the SNP on 23% and the Conservatives and Liberal
Democrats both on 14%, with the minority parties squeezed. But
Tories and LibDems will likely score higher because of the greater
tendency of middle-class voters to turn out. But for Mr Salmond, the
question of independence showed his party turning the corner in
terms of the battle for ideas. Nicola Sturgeon, his deputy, said:
"This is a real boost for the SNP's general election campaign.
Not only do most Scots back independence, but a clear majority of
those under 55 are in favour. "The independence generation is
getting bigger. The devolved Scottish Parliament is a toothless
tiger. We want to turn it into a powerhouse parliament."
Only in the west of Scotland, outwith Glasgow and Lothian, was
there a minority vote for independence, with majorities in favour in
every other part of Scotland. Women, traditionally more hostile to
the idea, were almost as supportive as men, although they had a
higher percentage of undecided voters. Those aged 25-34 were the
most enthusiastic in support of independence, backing it by 57% to
21%. The majorities in favour applied across the age ranges until it
came to those over 55, while opposition widened among those aged
over 65. There was also a division along social class lines,
with the blue-collar workers more supportive of independence than
white-collar.
Professor John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, agreed that it
was a significant finding, but pointed out that the framing of the
question – for or against a concept, rather than asking for a
choice between different stated options – probably boosted the
independence score. "It's a question that mimics the one asked
during the devolution referendum and you always get a higher
positive result that way," he said. "It's not that it
doesn't tell you anything. "People want greater relative
autonomy, but whether that is the same thing as SNP-style full
independence is another question. "It is interesting and
suggests a mood that the Scottish parliament isn't doing
enough."
Mr Salmond said something similar. "This poll demonstrates
in dramatic terms the new appetite for moving towards
independence," he argued, and he accepted that the challenge
for his party was persuading independence voters in other parties to
switch their allegiance to the SNP, pointing out that half of Labour
supporters, one-third of LibDem voters, and even a fifth of
Conservatives came out in support of independence.
When TNS System Three asked about the constitution twice in the
course of 1998, respondents were asked to back either "a
Scottish Parliament with Scotland remaining part of the UK" or
"an independent Scotland". On both occasions, the
independence option scored 34%, while devolution was preferred by
around 60%. Now that devolution is the accepted status quo, support
for independence appears to have hardened.
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